Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Sun

From NW7US on the CQ Magazine web site.

How Credible Are These "Experts"?
How much credibility should we grant to the panel of solar researchers and scientists that again releases a speculative prediction of the new Solar Cycle (the 24th since accurate solar cycle records have been kept)? Panel chairman Doug Biesecker of the NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center states, "If our prediction is correct, Solar Cycle 24 will have a peak sunspot number of 90, the lowest of any cycle since 1928 when Solar Cycle 16 peaked at 78."

NASA's lead representative on the panel, Dean Pesnell of the Goddard Space Flight Center, adds, "It turns out that none of our models were totally correct... The sun is behaving in an unexpected and very interesting way."

What I find entertaining is the self-importance prevalent in the solar science community, by both professional and some amateur participants. Pesnell states the obvious, "In our professional careers, we've never seen anything quite like it."

Yes, how many solar cycles can one experience during their professional life? The average cycle lasts between 11 and 12 years. But the Sun is millions of years old. In my view, it is pretty arrogant to postulate that mankind has any real understanding and handle on what the Sun might do next. Pesnell, again: "Go ahead and mark your calendar for May 2013, but use a pencil."

If none of the models are totally correct, how are they making this current prediction with such dismal expectations? I'm not holding my breath in favor of supporting any of the predictions at this point.

Me neither. Just three short years ago we were told by "experts":

Scientists at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) in Boulder, Colorado, have declared a breakthough in understanding our Sun's 11-year activity cycle. And they are using their new model to make predictions: that the next solar cycle will be 30 to 50 percent stronger than the one now ending, and that it will begin 6 to 12 months late.

Now they say, "Never mind." Oooooooh-kay... Next we'll be told that it's all due to solar cooling, which of course is caused by global warming.

Experts.